At the beginning of this decade, we were concerned with the trends that would dominate the decade - the decade in which we are currently living. At the time, it seemed to us that, given the high levels of state intervention in the economy, one trend that would dominate would be a more interventionist public sector. We wrote about this in both 2008 (see article) and 2009 (see article), before including the trend in our 2010-11 project 'A History Of The Next Ten Years' (click here for more details).
We are now 20% into the decade, and we are now collecting evidence that supports our view of the trend. In progressing from the identification of the trend to determining an underlying model that gave resonance to the trend, we took the view that politics, certainly from a European perspective, contained a tension between the mode of delivery (corporate -vs- atomistic) and the intended beneficiaries of the collective action (the individual -vs- the community). The model suggested that we were turning away from a period in which the individual would be the intended beneficiary of an atomistic (i.e. market based) collective action, and towards one in which the community would be the intended beneficiary of an atomistic (i.e. market based) collective action.
What does this mean in simple terms? The bottom line is that it implies a return to state owned corporations. Ones that are not within the public sector, but ones that do come under state control. In the UK, we have calls for a more interventionist industrial policy (see article), which Germany and France are leading the drive to greater state control of key industrial companies (see article). To a certain extent, this development was entirely foreseen.
If our model is correct, then in the decade after this one, we can expect to see a move from one in which the community would be the intended beneficiary of an atomistic (i.e. market based) collective action to one in which the community would be the intended beneficiary of an corporate (i.e. state directed) collective action. If we are right, then we may see the drive towards Big Brother increasing in the years to come. These are the data points for which we are now looking.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2012
We are now 20% into the decade, and we are now collecting evidence that supports our view of the trend. In progressing from the identification of the trend to determining an underlying model that gave resonance to the trend, we took the view that politics, certainly from a European perspective, contained a tension between the mode of delivery (corporate -vs- atomistic) and the intended beneficiaries of the collective action (the individual -vs- the community). The model suggested that we were turning away from a period in which the individual would be the intended beneficiary of an atomistic (i.e. market based) collective action, and towards one in which the community would be the intended beneficiary of an atomistic (i.e. market based) collective action.
What does this mean in simple terms? The bottom line is that it implies a return to state owned corporations. Ones that are not within the public sector, but ones that do come under state control. In the UK, we have calls for a more interventionist industrial policy (see article), which Germany and France are leading the drive to greater state control of key industrial companies (see article). To a certain extent, this development was entirely foreseen.
If our model is correct, then in the decade after this one, we can expect to see a move from one in which the community would be the intended beneficiary of an atomistic (i.e. market based) collective action to one in which the community would be the intended beneficiary of an corporate (i.e. state directed) collective action. If we are right, then we may see the drive towards Big Brother increasing in the years to come. These are the data points for which we are now looking.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2012
RSS Feed
