Books
Our Geopolitical Futures 2050
The book is the product of those APF Emerging Fellows who successfully completed the 2020 programme. It contains seven views of the way in which geopolitics may evolve in the years to 2050. The book is organised to examine three themes (the BRI, climate change, and migration) and four areas (the Heartland, the Arctic, Africa, and Asia). These will inevitably interact with each other to shape a world order that may not necessarily reflect the current one. Together, the seven pieces combine to provide a view of an evolving world order and how it may end up by the middle of the century.
Click here for more details
Capital Transformed
The book is the product of those APF Emerging Fellows who successfully completed the 2019 programme. It contains eight distinct views of a world in which the current way of doing things no longer applies. Rather than viewing the collapse of capitalism, they consider how capitalism might transform into something rather different. They examine an economic transformation, a social transformation, the potential for a political transformation, and how technology may transform itself. Together, they provide a view of a world that has evolved from the present arrangements.
Click here for more details
A History Of The Next Ten Years
This book provides a retrospective of the project undertaken in 2009 that sought to provide insight into the broad contours of the decade ahead. Now that future has become the past, we are in an opportunity to review how things turned out. To assess what was useful and what was unhelpful. This data point can be used to demonstrate - or otherwise - the usefulness of futuring as a technique. We can also use the analysis to look ahead into the 2020s before offering a snapshot of a possible future for 2030. Despite all of the gloom abounding today, there are grounds to be hopeful.
Click Here for more details
Glimpses Of A Post-Capitalist Future
The book is the product of those APF Emerging Fellows who successfully completed the 2018 programme. It contains four distinct views of a world in which the current way of doing things no longer applies. Adam Cowart considers a the economy of a world that has largely de-materialised. Craig Perry asks if another Great Power war is inevitable. Monica Porteanu examines the ways in which broken societies can heal themselves. Finally, Polina Silakova reviews the prospect of a Post-Capitalist economy being one that prioritises values over possessions. Together, they provide us with four diverse glimpses of a Post-Capitalist future.
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Communities Of The Future: tales From Suffolk In 2030
Looking at five key communities in Suffolk in the years to 2030, the authors identify the challenges facing each of those communities in the path to the future and then outline both a positive and a negative future scenario for that community. The purpose of the scenarios is to inspire the reader to build a better future.
Click Here for more details.
Our Geopolitical Futures 2050
The book is the product of those APF Emerging Fellows who successfully completed the 2020 programme. It contains seven views of the way in which geopolitics may evolve in the years to 2050. The book is organised to examine three themes (the BRI, climate change, and migration) and four areas (the Heartland, the Arctic, Africa, and Asia). These will inevitably interact with each other to shape a world order that may not necessarily reflect the current one. Together, the seven pieces combine to provide a view of an evolving world order and how it may end up by the middle of the century.
Click here for more details
Capital Transformed
The book is the product of those APF Emerging Fellows who successfully completed the 2019 programme. It contains eight distinct views of a world in which the current way of doing things no longer applies. Rather than viewing the collapse of capitalism, they consider how capitalism might transform into something rather different. They examine an economic transformation, a social transformation, the potential for a political transformation, and how technology may transform itself. Together, they provide a view of a world that has evolved from the present arrangements.
Click here for more details
A History Of The Next Ten Years
This book provides a retrospective of the project undertaken in 2009 that sought to provide insight into the broad contours of the decade ahead. Now that future has become the past, we are in an opportunity to review how things turned out. To assess what was useful and what was unhelpful. This data point can be used to demonstrate - or otherwise - the usefulness of futuring as a technique. We can also use the analysis to look ahead into the 2020s before offering a snapshot of a possible future for 2030. Despite all of the gloom abounding today, there are grounds to be hopeful.
Click Here for more details
Glimpses Of A Post-Capitalist Future
The book is the product of those APF Emerging Fellows who successfully completed the 2018 programme. It contains four distinct views of a world in which the current way of doing things no longer applies. Adam Cowart considers a the economy of a world that has largely de-materialised. Craig Perry asks if another Great Power war is inevitable. Monica Porteanu examines the ways in which broken societies can heal themselves. Finally, Polina Silakova reviews the prospect of a Post-Capitalist economy being one that prioritises values over possessions. Together, they provide us with four diverse glimpses of a Post-Capitalist future.
Click Here for more details
Communities Of The Future: tales From Suffolk In 2030
Looking at five key communities in Suffolk in the years to 2030, the authors identify the challenges facing each of those communities in the path to the future and then outline both a positive and a negative future scenario for that community. The purpose of the scenarios is to inspire the reader to build a better future.
Click Here for more details.
Articles
How can we Speculate About The Past, Present, And Future?
This article examines the question of path dependent futures. In many ways, the way in which we conceive the future is determined by our perception of the past and present. How can we envisage alternative histories? Would they give rise to a different present? Does that free us to consider radically different futures? Published as an article in the February 2024 edition of the APF Compass, this piece considers the mechanisms to generate alternative pasts, presents and futures.
Click here for the article.
Gaming The Hight North
This article examines how Arctic futures might be discerned by gaming a variety of scenarios. The prospect of a thawing Arctic polar ice cap is uncovering a variety of economic and geopolitical possibilities. How can we model this emerging future to ensure that we arrive at our preferred future? Published as an article in the September 2023 edition of the APF Compass, this piece considers how we can game possibilities for the High North.
Click here for the article.
What Is the Business Case For Foresight?
This article examines the business case for foresight. Much foresight work involves the commitment of resources up front for benefits that are uncertain and which are enjoyed at a point way distant in the future. In which case, how do we make a business case for foresight? Published as an article in the April 2023 edition of the APF Compass, this piece considers how we can make a business case for foresight.
Click here for the article.
Does cyber-attack mean war?
Published in The Futurian Issue #6 (June 2022), the article considers whether a cyber-attack might be the prelude to an attack in the physical realm. It looks at the problems with identifying the origins of such an attack and the lack of transparency that is associated with operations in the cyber realm.
Click here for the article.
Is it time to revive the 'Pivot of History'?
Published in The Futurian Issue #5 (March 2022), the article examines the prospect of much closer co-operation between China, Russia, and Iran in Central Asia. It looks at what this might mean to North American and European diplomacy and questions the wisdom of the western allies turning away from the region.
Click here for the article.
Could Greenlash derail the climate?
Published in The Futurian Issue #4 (December 2021), the article considers whether popular discontent with the cost of climate mitigation might lead to such policies being abandoned. It reviews the circumstances where this state of affairs could come about and suggests a number of remedial policies that could prevent this future from happening.
Click here for the article.
Is a hotter world necessarily a hungrier one?
Published in The Futurian Issue #3 (October 2021), the article considers whether or not a warming planet will lead to widespread food shortages. It examines the possibility that a warming planet could actually increase food production, and what the consequences of that would be. What would we have to do for this future to unfold?
Click here for the article.
The Approaching Green Wave
Published in The Futurian Issue #2 (June 2021), the article considers whether or not the COVID-19 pandemic might act as a spur to the greening of the economy. This draws upon some work undertaken over the past decade looking into the nature of technological innovation and how it impacts on productivity and wealth generation.
Click here for the article.
Does Cash Have A Future?
Published in The Futurian Issue #1 (March 2021), the article considers whether or not cash has a future, and if so, why that might be the case. This draws upon some work undertaken over the past decade looking into the nature of money and payments systems, and how they fit into a modern economy.
Click here for the article.
Confrontation Analysis: The Card Game
Published in the February 2020 edition of The Nugget, the journal of Wargame Developments, this is the report of a Confrontation Analysis based wargame that I attended in July 2019 that examined some of the strategic possibilities in the South China Sea in the near term future.
Click here for the article.
Brexit - The Wargame
Published in the September 2019 edition of The Nugget, the journal of Wargame Developments, this is a report of a Decision Analysis based wargame I attended in July 2019 that examined the strategic options faced by the UK up to November 2019 over Brexit.
Click here for the article.
Gaming The Future: A Practitioner's View
An opinion piece on the use of gaming as a technique used to generate future scenario narratives. Published in On The Horizon, June 2019, the piece sets out the case for using a gaming framework in futures work.
Click here for the article.
Dragonstrike Revisited
Published in the September 2018 edition of The Nugget, the journal of Wargames Developments, this is a report on an economic wargame delivered on the eve of the US initiating it's trade war with China. It is a game where warfare is migrated to the financial markets.
Click here for the article.
The Russia House
A book review of 2017: The War With Russia by General Sir Richard Shirreff. Published as a book review in the July 2015 edition of the APF Compass, this piece considers the issue of security in the Baltic States.
Click here for the article.
There Is An Alternative!
Published as a book review in the July 2015 edition of the APF Compass, this piece considers the question of whether or not there is an alternative to the form of market capitalism under which we currently live.
Click here for the article.
The Green Wave
Published as the Foreword to Science Omega Review in June 2013 as an introduction to Issue #2, this piece introduces the concept of The Green Wave (the next great long wave of technological development), and speculates what it is all likely to be about.
Click here for the article.
Will We Still Have Money In 2100?
Published in The Futurist Magazine in September 2012 as part of a compilation of pieces envisioning life in 2100, this article asks if we will still have money in 2100, and speculates on what form it may take if we do. Courtesy of the World Future Society, www.wfs.org. (The piece is on Page 11 of the PDF).
Click here for the article.
The Second String
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Summer 2011, this article examines how a second string of emerging nations may come to challenge the BRICs.
Click here for the article.
From Red China To Green China
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Autumn 2010, this article argues that if China is to achieve its industrial destiny, then it will have to become the first major green economy.
Click here for the article.
The Post Scarcity World Of 2050-75
Published in The Futurist Magazine in January 2010, this article starts by assuming a period of acute resource scarcity to 2050, and then considers what the world could be like once scarcity abates. Courtesy of the World Future Society, www.wfs.org.
Click here for the article.
A Letter To My Nephew
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Summer 2009, this article examines whether or not there can be an objective future, and draws the conclusion that all futures are normative.
Click here for the article.
The Globalisation Of Crime 2
Published in Swiss Future Magazine in January 2009, this article examines the ways in which organised criminal gangs are using the architecture of globalisation to further their ends, and calls for the globalisation of law enforcement to counter this trend.
Click here for the article.
The Globalization Of Crime 1
Published in The Futurist Magazine in November 2008, this article examines the ways in which organised criminal gangs are using the architecture of globalization to further their ends. Courtesy of the World Future Society, www.wfs.org.
Click here for the article.
Accommodating The Flow Of People
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Summer 2008, this article considers the flow of people as a consequence of globalisation and questions how these flows are integrated with the host populations.
Click here for the article.
The Second Cold War
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Winter 2007, this article hypothesizes about a second confrontation between the US and Russia, and how Russia could exploit the strategic weaknesses of America.
Click here for the article.
The Dragon And The Tiger Revisited
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Summer 2007, this article examines the complex geopolitical relationships between China, India, and the US.
Click here for the article.
Profiling small businesses using Spiral Dynamics (Article)
Published in Strategy Magazine in August 2005, this article examines the use of Spiral Profiling as a technique to enhance service delivery.
Click here for the article.
This article examines the question of path dependent futures. In many ways, the way in which we conceive the future is determined by our perception of the past and present. How can we envisage alternative histories? Would they give rise to a different present? Does that free us to consider radically different futures? Published as an article in the February 2024 edition of the APF Compass, this piece considers the mechanisms to generate alternative pasts, presents and futures.
Click here for the article.
Gaming The Hight North
This article examines how Arctic futures might be discerned by gaming a variety of scenarios. The prospect of a thawing Arctic polar ice cap is uncovering a variety of economic and geopolitical possibilities. How can we model this emerging future to ensure that we arrive at our preferred future? Published as an article in the September 2023 edition of the APF Compass, this piece considers how we can game possibilities for the High North.
Click here for the article.
What Is the Business Case For Foresight?
This article examines the business case for foresight. Much foresight work involves the commitment of resources up front for benefits that are uncertain and which are enjoyed at a point way distant in the future. In which case, how do we make a business case for foresight? Published as an article in the April 2023 edition of the APF Compass, this piece considers how we can make a business case for foresight.
Click here for the article.
Does cyber-attack mean war?
Published in The Futurian Issue #6 (June 2022), the article considers whether a cyber-attack might be the prelude to an attack in the physical realm. It looks at the problems with identifying the origins of such an attack and the lack of transparency that is associated with operations in the cyber realm.
Click here for the article.
Is it time to revive the 'Pivot of History'?
Published in The Futurian Issue #5 (March 2022), the article examines the prospect of much closer co-operation between China, Russia, and Iran in Central Asia. It looks at what this might mean to North American and European diplomacy and questions the wisdom of the western allies turning away from the region.
Click here for the article.
Could Greenlash derail the climate?
Published in The Futurian Issue #4 (December 2021), the article considers whether popular discontent with the cost of climate mitigation might lead to such policies being abandoned. It reviews the circumstances where this state of affairs could come about and suggests a number of remedial policies that could prevent this future from happening.
Click here for the article.
Is a hotter world necessarily a hungrier one?
Published in The Futurian Issue #3 (October 2021), the article considers whether or not a warming planet will lead to widespread food shortages. It examines the possibility that a warming planet could actually increase food production, and what the consequences of that would be. What would we have to do for this future to unfold?
Click here for the article.
The Approaching Green Wave
Published in The Futurian Issue #2 (June 2021), the article considers whether or not the COVID-19 pandemic might act as a spur to the greening of the economy. This draws upon some work undertaken over the past decade looking into the nature of technological innovation and how it impacts on productivity and wealth generation.
Click here for the article.
Does Cash Have A Future?
Published in The Futurian Issue #1 (March 2021), the article considers whether or not cash has a future, and if so, why that might be the case. This draws upon some work undertaken over the past decade looking into the nature of money and payments systems, and how they fit into a modern economy.
Click here for the article.
Confrontation Analysis: The Card Game
Published in the February 2020 edition of The Nugget, the journal of Wargame Developments, this is the report of a Confrontation Analysis based wargame that I attended in July 2019 that examined some of the strategic possibilities in the South China Sea in the near term future.
Click here for the article.
Brexit - The Wargame
Published in the September 2019 edition of The Nugget, the journal of Wargame Developments, this is a report of a Decision Analysis based wargame I attended in July 2019 that examined the strategic options faced by the UK up to November 2019 over Brexit.
Click here for the article.
Gaming The Future: A Practitioner's View
An opinion piece on the use of gaming as a technique used to generate future scenario narratives. Published in On The Horizon, June 2019, the piece sets out the case for using a gaming framework in futures work.
Click here for the article.
Dragonstrike Revisited
Published in the September 2018 edition of The Nugget, the journal of Wargames Developments, this is a report on an economic wargame delivered on the eve of the US initiating it's trade war with China. It is a game where warfare is migrated to the financial markets.
Click here for the article.
The Russia House
A book review of 2017: The War With Russia by General Sir Richard Shirreff. Published as a book review in the July 2015 edition of the APF Compass, this piece considers the issue of security in the Baltic States.
Click here for the article.
There Is An Alternative!
Published as a book review in the July 2015 edition of the APF Compass, this piece considers the question of whether or not there is an alternative to the form of market capitalism under which we currently live.
Click here for the article.
The Green Wave
Published as the Foreword to Science Omega Review in June 2013 as an introduction to Issue #2, this piece introduces the concept of The Green Wave (the next great long wave of technological development), and speculates what it is all likely to be about.
Click here for the article.
Will We Still Have Money In 2100?
Published in The Futurist Magazine in September 2012 as part of a compilation of pieces envisioning life in 2100, this article asks if we will still have money in 2100, and speculates on what form it may take if we do. Courtesy of the World Future Society, www.wfs.org. (The piece is on Page 11 of the PDF).
Click here for the article.
The Second String
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Summer 2011, this article examines how a second string of emerging nations may come to challenge the BRICs.
Click here for the article.
From Red China To Green China
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Autumn 2010, this article argues that if China is to achieve its industrial destiny, then it will have to become the first major green economy.
Click here for the article.
The Post Scarcity World Of 2050-75
Published in The Futurist Magazine in January 2010, this article starts by assuming a period of acute resource scarcity to 2050, and then considers what the world could be like once scarcity abates. Courtesy of the World Future Society, www.wfs.org.
Click here for the article.
A Letter To My Nephew
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Summer 2009, this article examines whether or not there can be an objective future, and draws the conclusion that all futures are normative.
Click here for the article.
The Globalisation Of Crime 2
Published in Swiss Future Magazine in January 2009, this article examines the ways in which organised criminal gangs are using the architecture of globalisation to further their ends, and calls for the globalisation of law enforcement to counter this trend.
Click here for the article.
The Globalization Of Crime 1
Published in The Futurist Magazine in November 2008, this article examines the ways in which organised criminal gangs are using the architecture of globalization to further their ends. Courtesy of the World Future Society, www.wfs.org.
Click here for the article.
Accommodating The Flow Of People
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Summer 2008, this article considers the flow of people as a consequence of globalisation and questions how these flows are integrated with the host populations.
Click here for the article.
The Second Cold War
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Winter 2007, this article hypothesizes about a second confrontation between the US and Russia, and how Russia could exploit the strategic weaknesses of America.
Click here for the article.
The Dragon And The Tiger Revisited
Published in FUTUREtakes Magazine in Summer 2007, this article examines the complex geopolitical relationships between China, India, and the US.
Click here for the article.
Profiling small businesses using Spiral Dynamics (Article)
Published in Strategy Magazine in August 2005, this article examines the use of Spiral Profiling as a technique to enhance service delivery.
Click here for the article.
Book Chapters
Using Futuring To Generate Better Wargaming Scenarios
Published as a chapter in 'Wargaming The Far Future' in October 2019, this piece sets out a framework for futuring that can be used by wargames designers when constructing conflict scenarios in the far future.
Click here for the chapter.
Is The Pace Of Change Accelerating?
Published as a short chapter in 'The Future Of Business' in June 2015, this piece asks whether it is reasonable to expect the pace of change to continue accelerating, considers what factors might make things slow down, and reviews the possibility of the pace slowing in the immediate future.
Click here for the chapter.
An Age Of Stagnation?
Published in World Future Review in June 2014, this article considers whether or not the recent recession has permanently affected the trajectory of growth within the world economy.
Click here for the chapter.
Playing The Wild Card
Published in World Future Review in June 2013, this article attempts to extend our thinking about Wild Card Scenarios by introducing people to the theory, and by considering endogenous and exogenous wild card events.
Click here for the chapter.
Surfing The Sixth Wave
Published in World Future Review in July 2012, this article examines a model for long waves of technological advance, where we might be now in this process, and what is likely to lie ahead in the next two or three decades.
Click here for the chapter.
The New Enlightenment
Published in Moving From Vision To Action in July 2011, this chapter considers whether or not The Enlightenment has run its course, and, if it has, speculates upon what might come next.
Click here for the chapter.
The Post-Scarcity World Of 2050-2075
Published in Innovation And Creativity In A Complex World in July 2009, this chapter examines how the world may become organised in the second half of the twenty-first century.
Click here for the chapter.
The Globalisation Of Crime
Published in Seeing The Future Through New Eyes in July 2008, this chapter examines some of the unexpected consequences of the process of globalisation.
Click here for the chapter.
The European Way Of War 2005-2020
Published in Creating Global Strategies For Humanity’s Future in July 2006, this chapter examines how the European Union might develop to 2020 and how it’s use of force might respond to that development.
Click here for the chapter.
Talk 24 Assist: A Case Study In Practical Futures
Published in Foresight, Innovation, and Strategy: Toward A Wiser Future in July 2005, this chapter examines the practical aspects of integrating futures into a corporate strategy through the use of a case study.
Click here for the chapter.
Published as a chapter in 'Wargaming The Far Future' in October 2019, this piece sets out a framework for futuring that can be used by wargames designers when constructing conflict scenarios in the far future.
Click here for the chapter.
Is The Pace Of Change Accelerating?
Published as a short chapter in 'The Future Of Business' in June 2015, this piece asks whether it is reasonable to expect the pace of change to continue accelerating, considers what factors might make things slow down, and reviews the possibility of the pace slowing in the immediate future.
Click here for the chapter.
An Age Of Stagnation?
Published in World Future Review in June 2014, this article considers whether or not the recent recession has permanently affected the trajectory of growth within the world economy.
Click here for the chapter.
Playing The Wild Card
Published in World Future Review in June 2013, this article attempts to extend our thinking about Wild Card Scenarios by introducing people to the theory, and by considering endogenous and exogenous wild card events.
Click here for the chapter.
Surfing The Sixth Wave
Published in World Future Review in July 2012, this article examines a model for long waves of technological advance, where we might be now in this process, and what is likely to lie ahead in the next two or three decades.
Click here for the chapter.
The New Enlightenment
Published in Moving From Vision To Action in July 2011, this chapter considers whether or not The Enlightenment has run its course, and, if it has, speculates upon what might come next.
Click here for the chapter.
The Post-Scarcity World Of 2050-2075
Published in Innovation And Creativity In A Complex World in July 2009, this chapter examines how the world may become organised in the second half of the twenty-first century.
Click here for the chapter.
The Globalisation Of Crime
Published in Seeing The Future Through New Eyes in July 2008, this chapter examines some of the unexpected consequences of the process of globalisation.
Click here for the chapter.
The European Way Of War 2005-2020
Published in Creating Global Strategies For Humanity’s Future in July 2006, this chapter examines how the European Union might develop to 2020 and how it’s use of force might respond to that development.
Click here for the chapter.
Talk 24 Assist: A Case Study In Practical Futures
Published in Foresight, Innovation, and Strategy: Toward A Wiser Future in July 2005, this chapter examines the practical aspects of integrating futures into a corporate strategy through the use of a case study.
Click here for the chapter.
Briefings
A Future Worth Building
This was a scenario that originated in the America 2025 project that considered what the path to a 'good result' for the US in 2025 might look like. First published in 2007, the main focus was upon foreign policy, but progress in the global economy was not entirely ignored. In many ways, it provided a pathway into the future against which modern Presidencies can be compared. The first contact with reality for this scenario came when President Obama was elected in 2008. Our appraisal of the situation in 2008 can be found here.
Click here for the scenario.
This was a scenario that originated in the America 2025 project that considered what the path to a 'good result' for the US in 2025 might look like. First published in 2007, the main focus was upon foreign policy, but progress in the global economy was not entirely ignored. In many ways, it provided a pathway into the future against which modern Presidencies can be compared. The first contact with reality for this scenario came when President Obama was elected in 2008. Our appraisal of the situation in 2008 can be found here.
Click here for the scenario.