Programme Outline
The theme for 2020 is 'Our Geo-Political Futures' - the evolution of the world order to 2050. The basic premise of the project is that we are living at a time of geo-political transformation. The world order that has served us well since the Second World War is starting to feel a little dated. The institutions created after World War II no longer seem to serve adequately the problems we face. Not only are we facing a new type of problem, the geo-political balance is changing as well. We shall examine how this may play out by 2050.
Much change in the world can be laid down to two factors - the re-structuring of the world economy and a changing climate . The re-structuring has been enabled by advances in technology in recent decades, allowing for the extension of global supply chains and new markets to be created. This has led to a shift in the balance of economic advantage away from Europe and North America, towards East and South Asia. These shifts have yet to fully play out and the study will examine the pathways they could take in the next 30 years. The regional studies will examine four key locations where change could have a profound impact.
A changing climate is also starting to have an impact upon the world order. Areas that have previously been inhospitable to human activity, such as the Arctic, are now starting to open up. Equally, areas in which human activity has been possible to date, such as the Sahel, are starting to become hostile to human activity. As the climate changes and has an impact upon human activity, issues such as migration, poverty, and economic potential may come to the fore. The thematic studies will get to grips with these issues to provide an insight into how they may unfold by 2050.
This programme lends itself nicely to a 3 Horizons approach. The first posts are likely to be concentrated on H1 (where we are today), whilst the bulk of posts will be rooted in H3 (how much of tomorrow is evident today). In defining these two states, we plan to be able to describe some aspects of the transition from the one to the other, the second horizon, H2 (how we get from today to the future). By the time we reach the end of the project, we would hope to have identified elements of an emergent future, what that future state might look like, and how we get from the present to that emergent future.
Our time horizon is the next 30 years. We shall take by assumption that disruptive climate change is likely to have an impact upon the economy and society. Whilst we acknowledge that technological developments have the potential to alleviate some of the effects of climate change, it is central to our study that there are more people on the planet, many wanting a more progressive lifestyle, against a background of environmental degradation. It is within this framework that we shall look for optimistic futures.
Each member of the team will publish one piece per month for 2020. These will be published electronically on the APF blog. At the end of 2020, the collected work will be collated and edited into a single print volume.
We hope that you find this exploration of the future both interesting and useful.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
Programme Director
Much change in the world can be laid down to two factors - the re-structuring of the world economy and a changing climate . The re-structuring has been enabled by advances in technology in recent decades, allowing for the extension of global supply chains and new markets to be created. This has led to a shift in the balance of economic advantage away from Europe and North America, towards East and South Asia. These shifts have yet to fully play out and the study will examine the pathways they could take in the next 30 years. The regional studies will examine four key locations where change could have a profound impact.
A changing climate is also starting to have an impact upon the world order. Areas that have previously been inhospitable to human activity, such as the Arctic, are now starting to open up. Equally, areas in which human activity has been possible to date, such as the Sahel, are starting to become hostile to human activity. As the climate changes and has an impact upon human activity, issues such as migration, poverty, and economic potential may come to the fore. The thematic studies will get to grips with these issues to provide an insight into how they may unfold by 2050.
This programme lends itself nicely to a 3 Horizons approach. The first posts are likely to be concentrated on H1 (where we are today), whilst the bulk of posts will be rooted in H3 (how much of tomorrow is evident today). In defining these two states, we plan to be able to describe some aspects of the transition from the one to the other, the second horizon, H2 (how we get from today to the future). By the time we reach the end of the project, we would hope to have identified elements of an emergent future, what that future state might look like, and how we get from the present to that emergent future.
Our time horizon is the next 30 years. We shall take by assumption that disruptive climate change is likely to have an impact upon the economy and society. Whilst we acknowledge that technological developments have the potential to alleviate some of the effects of climate change, it is central to our study that there are more people on the planet, many wanting a more progressive lifestyle, against a background of environmental degradation. It is within this framework that we shall look for optimistic futures.
Each member of the team will publish one piece per month for 2020. These will be published electronically on the APF blog. At the end of 2020, the collected work will be collated and edited into a single print volume.
We hope that you find this exploration of the future both interesting and useful.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
Programme Director