Programme Outline
The theme for 2019 is the 'Transformation of Capital' - more a case of evolution than revolution. The basic premise of the project is that instead of Capitalism ending (the Post-Capitalist argument), it could be radically transformed. If so, what could it be transformed into, and how much of that transformation is evident today?
The history of capitalism extends further back than the formulation first identified by Marx. The Marxian version of capitalism is essentially an industrial form of capitalism. This contains an inconvenience for the Marxian formulation - pre-capitalist accumulations of capital - and the dilemma of how to describe emerging forms of capital in a post-industrial world. One way to handle these problems is to abandon the simple Marxian formulation of capitalism. This would allow us to engage with a wider array of subtleties and nuances.
In the pre-industrial era, the economy would be essentially agrarian. There would be a degree of internal and international trade, mainly in primary products and rudimentary manufactures. The Industrial Revolution allowed the development of manufactures into more complex forms and was facilitated by the development of financial markets to serve these new methods of production. In many ways, the economy was shaped by, and helped to shape, emergent social forms. Industrialisation facilitated the growth of cities and rapid urbanisation, which shaped the politics of the day.
For the purposes of this project, we hold that the industrial era is coming to an end, to be replaced by the information age. Just as the transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy helped to re-shape social and economic institutions, so, we hold, will new economic and social institutions emerge from the transition from the industrial era to the information age. The project aims to examine this transition and how some of the emerging forms might take shape.
This subject lends itself nicely to a 3 Horizons approach. The first posts are likely to be concentrated on H1 (where we are today), whilst the bulk of posts will be rooted in H3 (how much of tomorrow is evident today). In defining these two states, we plan to be able to describe some aspects of the transition from the one to the other, the second horizon, H2 (how we get from today to the future). By the time we reach the end of the project, we would hope to have identified elements of an emergent future, what that future state might look like, and how we get from the present to that emergent future.
Our time horizon is the second half of this century. We shall take by assumption that disruptive climate change is likely to have an impact upon the economy and society. This is twinned, once again by assumption, with a general resource scarcity. Whilst we acknowledge that technological developments have the potential to alleviate some of the scarcities experienced, it is central to our study that there are more people on the planet, many wanting a more progressive lifestyle, against a background of environmental degradation. It is within this framework that we shall look for optimistic futures.
The enquiry will be conducted in four directions - the economic, social, political, and technological. The economic enquiry will review the company as an institution, the digital economy, and the role of finance in all of this. The social enquiry will consider the role of inequality and whether new social forms might emerge along side emergent economic forms. The political enquiry will examine the role democracy might play in an emergent future and how that may impact upon personal liberty. Finally, the technological enquiry will focus on the relationship between automation and ownership structures.
Each member of the team will publish one piece per month for 2019. These will be published electronically on the APF blog. At the end of 2019, the collected work will be collated and edited into a single print volume.
We hope that you find this exploration of the future interesting and useful.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
Programme Director
The history of capitalism extends further back than the formulation first identified by Marx. The Marxian version of capitalism is essentially an industrial form of capitalism. This contains an inconvenience for the Marxian formulation - pre-capitalist accumulations of capital - and the dilemma of how to describe emerging forms of capital in a post-industrial world. One way to handle these problems is to abandon the simple Marxian formulation of capitalism. This would allow us to engage with a wider array of subtleties and nuances.
In the pre-industrial era, the economy would be essentially agrarian. There would be a degree of internal and international trade, mainly in primary products and rudimentary manufactures. The Industrial Revolution allowed the development of manufactures into more complex forms and was facilitated by the development of financial markets to serve these new methods of production. In many ways, the economy was shaped by, and helped to shape, emergent social forms. Industrialisation facilitated the growth of cities and rapid urbanisation, which shaped the politics of the day.
For the purposes of this project, we hold that the industrial era is coming to an end, to be replaced by the information age. Just as the transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy helped to re-shape social and economic institutions, so, we hold, will new economic and social institutions emerge from the transition from the industrial era to the information age. The project aims to examine this transition and how some of the emerging forms might take shape.
This subject lends itself nicely to a 3 Horizons approach. The first posts are likely to be concentrated on H1 (where we are today), whilst the bulk of posts will be rooted in H3 (how much of tomorrow is evident today). In defining these two states, we plan to be able to describe some aspects of the transition from the one to the other, the second horizon, H2 (how we get from today to the future). By the time we reach the end of the project, we would hope to have identified elements of an emergent future, what that future state might look like, and how we get from the present to that emergent future.
Our time horizon is the second half of this century. We shall take by assumption that disruptive climate change is likely to have an impact upon the economy and society. This is twinned, once again by assumption, with a general resource scarcity. Whilst we acknowledge that technological developments have the potential to alleviate some of the scarcities experienced, it is central to our study that there are more people on the planet, many wanting a more progressive lifestyle, against a background of environmental degradation. It is within this framework that we shall look for optimistic futures.
The enquiry will be conducted in four directions - the economic, social, political, and technological. The economic enquiry will review the company as an institution, the digital economy, and the role of finance in all of this. The social enquiry will consider the role of inequality and whether new social forms might emerge along side emergent economic forms. The political enquiry will examine the role democracy might play in an emergent future and how that may impact upon personal liberty. Finally, the technological enquiry will focus on the relationship between automation and ownership structures.
Each member of the team will publish one piece per month for 2019. These will be published electronically on the APF blog. At the end of 2019, the collected work will be collated and edited into a single print volume.
We hope that you find this exploration of the future interesting and useful.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
Programme Director