The Next Golden Age Of Technology
This series of meetings features prominent futurists, who use different approaches to consider forecasts for the period including 2030-45 - a period which has the potential (if we reach it safely) to be a golden age of technology. Can we in fact forecast the future with any degree of confidence? Many people believe that, as there are so many imponderables, the long range future is opaque to us.
Underlying where we are today are a number of longer term trends and developments that occur with such regularity to make them something of a recurring cycle. For example, we can see a pattern in the developments from the letter, to the telegraph, to the telephone, to twitter. The purpose of this series of meetings is to consider the evidence supporting these "long models" of technological advance, and to speculate on how they might unfold.
The series, undertaken in conjunction with the London Futurists group, consists of six sessions. The details of the sessions are as follows:
1. Surfing The Sixth Wave.
This was a talk given to launch the 2012-13 WFS Europe Chapter meetings programme, which is being delivered in conjunction with London Futurists. The talk comprised of three parts - An Introduction To The Future (see slides), Modelling The Long Term Future (see slides), and The Next Golden Age Of Technology 2030-45 (see slides).
The session examined the long cycles of technological development, considering where we are now, and where we are likely to go next. We started by considering the different types of futurist and the different time horizons to which they apply their trade. We then examined how to model the long term future, and which models of the long term are reasonably persuasive.
We then outlined a model of long term technological development, an appreciation of where we are now, and an outline of where we would expect to head next. Using this framework, we were able to speculate on a number of important questions, including whether the Singularity is, actually, near.
(Stephen Aguilar-Millan - 15th September 2012)
2. Is A Singularity Near?
Is human civilisation facing an imminent transition of unparalleled disruptive scale? The idea of a "singularity" covers a range of possible transformations in civilisation, whose approach might be discerned from accelerating changes in technology or social organisation, but whose outcome cannot be foreseen.
A modern-day singularity could be similar to what happened in the agricultural and industrial revolutions, but potentially much swifter. After all, modern day technology is much more powerful and pervasive, and there are many hidden inter-dependencies within society. Examples of a forthcoming singularity could include:
This talk reviewed recent thinking about a potential "technological singularity", as expressed in the Singularity Summit that took place in San Francisco the prior weekend. The talk restated selected ideas presented at that summit by a host of luminary futurist speakers, and assessed the merits and consequences of these ideas from a critical standpoint.
(David Wood - 20th October 2012)
3. People In The Golden Age Of Technology
Scientific advances, technological innovation, and social demands are great forces of change. But shaping the direction of these changes are the values of people, their culture, and their consciousness. This session will look at models for thinking about the future that integrate human values (and potential changes in human values) alongside changes in more tangible, measurable elements of the world - elements such as the environment, science, technology, economics and society.
In a globalized world there is an increasing visibility and awareness of the different ways people live. These differences manifest themselves as people’s values, which can impede, govern, accelerate or even regress change. For example, some people see it as attractive and acceptable to use genetic insight for personalised healthcare. Genetically modified food products are, however, a concern to some because of uncertainty over their systemic impact. Stem Cell research and application is a challenge to others due to their religious beliefs.
So values influence change in tangible elements of society. In parallel, complex changes in tangible elements of society influence change in human values. As our physical, technological, social and cultural world changes around us, we change physically, psychologically, in our relationships, and in our ways of living. The things we value are likely to change too.
This session will also include background on the source of this progressive futures perspective. It will also connect to the proposition of the 'Golden Age of Technology' discussed in the preceding two sessions in this series.
Click here to access the slides from the talk.
(Nick Price - 24th November 2012)
4. The Symbiosis Of Man And Machine.
In 2000 it was clear that mankind was building a networked world of people and things that was non-linear, chaotic, highly unpredictable not well understood, and probably impossible to control and manage. Signs of increasing instability and management difficulty culminated in global stagnation and recession by 2010. Throughout this period it was clear that bankers, financiers, economists and politicians did not understand what was happening and could not adapt to the situation.
It was also clear that the old industries and management methods were unsustainable and fundamentally unmanageable in the long term. Something new was needed, something radically different! A new era for industry, economics and management was being forecast that relied upon the tools and wisdom provided by intelligent machines, and by 2012 a vision of what was needed and why was beginning to emerge. And perhaps for the first time it seemed that the machines were ready but people were not. So what will be the state of play by 2035? Will we have made it or not? What is technologically possible, and what might humans accept?
In this presentation we therefore look at what looks to be technological possible and likely by 2020, 2030 and 2035, and speculate on the reaction and acceptance of people and political systems.
Click here to access the slides from the talk.
(Peter Cochrane - 19th January 2013)
5. A Singularitarian Utopia Or A New Dark Age?
We’re all familiar with the idea of the singularity, the end-result of rapid acceleration of technology development caused by positive feedback. This will add greatly to human capability, not just via gadgets but also through direct body and mind enhancement, and we’ll mess a lot with other organisms and AIs too. So we’ll have superhumans and super AIs as part of our society. But this new technology won’t bring a utopia.
We all know that some powerful people, governments, companies and terrorists will also add lots of bad things to the mix. The same technology that lets you enhance your senses or expand your mind also allows greatly increased surveillance and control, eventually to the extremes of direct indoctrination and zombification. Taking the forces that already exist, of tribalism, political correctness, secrecy for them and exposure for us, and so on, it’s clear that the far future will be a weird mixture of fantastic capability, spoiled by abuse.
Even without deliberate abuse, many people tend towards illogical thinking processes that result in bad decisions and that will both delay good things and worsen them when they finally come. The big question (that I can’t answer and will need some debate) is what are the relative strengths of these forces and will the future be a whole lot better than today, worse, or just different?
(Ian Pearson - 16th February 2013)
Click here to access the slides from the talk.
6. Interacting With A Global Healthcare System
The 21st century heralds the era of doctors and patients without borders. The internet, combined with advances in digital technologies and affordable international travel, has severed the geographic links between healthcare providers and consumers, offering new options to receive and deliver healthcare services, information and products that were previously unavailable. The result is a burgeoning global health care system shaped by personal need, economic opportunity and technological innovation.
Healthcare delivery provides a classic example of the tension between individual and collective rights. The new system lacks both regulation and control. While digitally empowered individuals are driving the growth of this new global healthcare system, its trans-boundary nature is forcing a re-evaluation of national healthcare policy, established standards of practice and current business models. Many global jurisdictions and private sector players have undertaken significant investment strategies to capitalize on a growing global market potentially worth trillions of dollars. The challenge for all is to understand the relevance and future implications of this rapidly evolving contextual environment.
The intersection between healthcare and digital technologies will continue to create significant decision making uncertainty for consumers, healthcare professionals, policy makers and private investors. In her presentation, Canadian futurist, Dr. Lois Macklin will examine the forces and factors that will shape global healthcare in the future. She will provide new insights into emerging opportunities and identify potential economic, legal and social challenges presented by a global healthcare system.
(Lois Macklin - 20th April 2013)
Click here to access the slides from the talk.
Underlying where we are today are a number of longer term trends and developments that occur with such regularity to make them something of a recurring cycle. For example, we can see a pattern in the developments from the letter, to the telegraph, to the telephone, to twitter. The purpose of this series of meetings is to consider the evidence supporting these "long models" of technological advance, and to speculate on how they might unfold.
The series, undertaken in conjunction with the London Futurists group, consists of six sessions. The details of the sessions are as follows:
1. Surfing The Sixth Wave.
This was a talk given to launch the 2012-13 WFS Europe Chapter meetings programme, which is being delivered in conjunction with London Futurists. The talk comprised of three parts - An Introduction To The Future (see slides), Modelling The Long Term Future (see slides), and The Next Golden Age Of Technology 2030-45 (see slides).
The session examined the long cycles of technological development, considering where we are now, and where we are likely to go next. We started by considering the different types of futurist and the different time horizons to which they apply their trade. We then examined how to model the long term future, and which models of the long term are reasonably persuasive.
We then outlined a model of long term technological development, an appreciation of where we are now, and an outline of where we would expect to head next. Using this framework, we were able to speculate on a number of important questions, including whether the Singularity is, actually, near.
(Stephen Aguilar-Millan - 15th September 2012)
2. Is A Singularity Near?
Is human civilisation facing an imminent transition of unparalleled disruptive scale? The idea of a "singularity" covers a range of possible transformations in civilisation, whose approach might be discerned from accelerating changes in technology or social organisation, but whose outcome cannot be foreseen.
A modern-day singularity could be similar to what happened in the agricultural and industrial revolutions, but potentially much swifter. After all, modern day technology is much more powerful and pervasive, and there are many hidden inter-dependencies within society. Examples of a forthcoming singularity could include:
- a singularly unpleasant collapse of society due to shortages of energy or other resources, compounded by market failures that make the 1929 stock market collapse look like a picnic,
- the advent of super-intelligent artificial intelligence that follows its own internal logic with drastic consequences for the humans who inadvertently set that intelligence in motion
- an accelerated merging of biology with technology, creating people who are super-strong and super-smart, who gain a runaway advantage over unenhanced humans.
This talk reviewed recent thinking about a potential "technological singularity", as expressed in the Singularity Summit that took place in San Francisco the prior weekend. The talk restated selected ideas presented at that summit by a host of luminary futurist speakers, and assessed the merits and consequences of these ideas from a critical standpoint.
(David Wood - 20th October 2012)
3. People In The Golden Age Of Technology
Scientific advances, technological innovation, and social demands are great forces of change. But shaping the direction of these changes are the values of people, their culture, and their consciousness. This session will look at models for thinking about the future that integrate human values (and potential changes in human values) alongside changes in more tangible, measurable elements of the world - elements such as the environment, science, technology, economics and society.
In a globalized world there is an increasing visibility and awareness of the different ways people live. These differences manifest themselves as people’s values, which can impede, govern, accelerate or even regress change. For example, some people see it as attractive and acceptable to use genetic insight for personalised healthcare. Genetically modified food products are, however, a concern to some because of uncertainty over their systemic impact. Stem Cell research and application is a challenge to others due to their religious beliefs.
So values influence change in tangible elements of society. In parallel, complex changes in tangible elements of society influence change in human values. As our physical, technological, social and cultural world changes around us, we change physically, psychologically, in our relationships, and in our ways of living. The things we value are likely to change too.
This session will also include background on the source of this progressive futures perspective. It will also connect to the proposition of the 'Golden Age of Technology' discussed in the preceding two sessions in this series.
Click here to access the slides from the talk.
(Nick Price - 24th November 2012)
4. The Symbiosis Of Man And Machine.
In 2000 it was clear that mankind was building a networked world of people and things that was non-linear, chaotic, highly unpredictable not well understood, and probably impossible to control and manage. Signs of increasing instability and management difficulty culminated in global stagnation and recession by 2010. Throughout this period it was clear that bankers, financiers, economists and politicians did not understand what was happening and could not adapt to the situation.
It was also clear that the old industries and management methods were unsustainable and fundamentally unmanageable in the long term. Something new was needed, something radically different! A new era for industry, economics and management was being forecast that relied upon the tools and wisdom provided by intelligent machines, and by 2012 a vision of what was needed and why was beginning to emerge. And perhaps for the first time it seemed that the machines were ready but people were not. So what will be the state of play by 2035? Will we have made it or not? What is technologically possible, and what might humans accept?
In this presentation we therefore look at what looks to be technological possible and likely by 2020, 2030 and 2035, and speculate on the reaction and acceptance of people and political systems.
Click here to access the slides from the talk.
(Peter Cochrane - 19th January 2013)
5. A Singularitarian Utopia Or A New Dark Age?
We’re all familiar with the idea of the singularity, the end-result of rapid acceleration of technology development caused by positive feedback. This will add greatly to human capability, not just via gadgets but also through direct body and mind enhancement, and we’ll mess a lot with other organisms and AIs too. So we’ll have superhumans and super AIs as part of our society. But this new technology won’t bring a utopia.
We all know that some powerful people, governments, companies and terrorists will also add lots of bad things to the mix. The same technology that lets you enhance your senses or expand your mind also allows greatly increased surveillance and control, eventually to the extremes of direct indoctrination and zombification. Taking the forces that already exist, of tribalism, political correctness, secrecy for them and exposure for us, and so on, it’s clear that the far future will be a weird mixture of fantastic capability, spoiled by abuse.
Even without deliberate abuse, many people tend towards illogical thinking processes that result in bad decisions and that will both delay good things and worsen them when they finally come. The big question (that I can’t answer and will need some debate) is what are the relative strengths of these forces and will the future be a whole lot better than today, worse, or just different?
(Ian Pearson - 16th February 2013)
Click here to access the slides from the talk.
6. Interacting With A Global Healthcare System
The 21st century heralds the era of doctors and patients without borders. The internet, combined with advances in digital technologies and affordable international travel, has severed the geographic links between healthcare providers and consumers, offering new options to receive and deliver healthcare services, information and products that were previously unavailable. The result is a burgeoning global health care system shaped by personal need, economic opportunity and technological innovation.
Healthcare delivery provides a classic example of the tension between individual and collective rights. The new system lacks both regulation and control. While digitally empowered individuals are driving the growth of this new global healthcare system, its trans-boundary nature is forcing a re-evaluation of national healthcare policy, established standards of practice and current business models. Many global jurisdictions and private sector players have undertaken significant investment strategies to capitalize on a growing global market potentially worth trillions of dollars. The challenge for all is to understand the relevance and future implications of this rapidly evolving contextual environment.
The intersection between healthcare and digital technologies will continue to create significant decision making uncertainty for consumers, healthcare professionals, policy makers and private investors. In her presentation, Canadian futurist, Dr. Lois Macklin will examine the forces and factors that will shape global healthcare in the future. She will provide new insights into emerging opportunities and identify potential economic, legal and social challenges presented by a global healthcare system.
(Lois Macklin - 20th April 2013)
Click here to access the slides from the talk.