Communities Of The Future
In the decade after this one, many believe that the impacts of Peak Oil and Climate Change will start to be felt. On top of this, the growth of global population will also have an effect, stretching our food and water resources towards their limits. As futurists, we have labelled the next decade as a period where Scarcity Bites to reflect these impending challenges.
Of course, the future is not pre-determined and we have it in our capacity to prepare for this future and to mitigate some of the possible worse effects. That was the theme of this programme. The purpose of this programme was to outline how a community base in rural England can respond to these challenges, and to highlight some of the policy decisions that could be implemented today to give us a brighter tomorrow.
The programme consisted of a series of six sessions. It was delivered at the Suffolk County Council HQ in Ipswich, in conjunction with RSA Suffolk, the Eastern Enterprise Hub, and Transition Ipswich. The content of the programme was reported to the WFS Annual Conference in Toronto, July 2012.
The first session served as a briefing session to highlight some of the key factors that are likely to become evident in the decade 2020-30, along with some of the complex interlinkages between the factors. The following five sessions focused upon how distinct communities can respond to this possible future. Click here to access the slides from the presentations. The six sessions were:
1. The Many and the FEW
In the year 2000, the population on earth was 6 billion people. In 2011, the population will reach 7 billion. By 2025, global population will grow to 8 billion. The Many refers to the growth in global population in the years to 2030. One of the implications of this rapid population is that we shall need to grow more food. In doing so, we shall use more energy and we shall use far more water. The FEW refers to the Food, Energy, and Water that the increased population will want to consume.The potential constraints resulting from our unsustainable use of the FEW are ones of great concern to futurists.
There is the possibility of acute scarcities of food, energy, and water as we head towards 2030. These scarcities are likely to be further exacerbated by the impact of climate change and peak oil over the next two decades. From this perspective, there is ample scope for quite a dystopian future. However, this future is not set, and we still have time to prepare for it, in order to make the most of the opportunities that it generates. It is up to us to construct a better future.
This session examined the key drivers that are propelling us towards a period of scarcity. We considered the basic components and how they fit together in a complex and unpredictable system. The session set the scene for participants in the following sessions where the impacts of the Many and the FEW upon specific communities were discussed.
(20th September 2011)
2. The Creative Community
“Where will the jobs come from?” is a cry often heard when it is proposed that we embrace change in the economy. The purpose of this session was to answer that question. Despite the real fears that people have about change giving rise to job losses, it is also true to say that there is also a continual process of job creation that goes with it. We are currently moving from the Organisational Age to the Creative Age. The Knowledge Economy is a phenomenon of the Creative Age. In the Knowledge Economy, the key to wealth creation is the ability to enhance knowledge. Knowledge is enhanced by adding value to what is known already, and this occurs through a creative process. By augmenting knowledge creatively, those who undertake this process have added value to the existing stock of knowledge, and this wealth creation drives economic growth.
It is often said that the key to job creation is the nurturing of the ‘Creative Class’. This is a group of people who are seen as essential to triggering economic growth. Much effort is made to attract the creatives to various locations, with varying degrees of success. Normally, we would want to generate a creative cluster as a pre-requisite to economic success. It is not until the cluster is fully interactive that the benefits will be felt. In this session, we considered who the ‘Creative Class’ are, why they are seen as essential to economic regeneration, and what policies and strategies could be put in place to attract and nurture them. We also took a detour into our likely technological future before moving on to consider what sort of jobs might be in Suffolk by 2030 if these policies were to be effective.
(25th October 2011)
3. The Entrepreneurial Community
It is commonly held that the main generator of jobs and prosperity is the small business sector. As a convenient shorthand, we called this the ‘Entrepreneurial Community’, assuming a degree of similarity between all small businesses in terms of outlook and aspirations. Whilst this is not necessarily the case, it is true to say that many large businesses do start off as small businesses. The Entrepreneurial Community takes responsibility for bringing to market the ideas of the Creative Community. The two appear to go together in tandem, and that a healthy Creative Community is a pre-requisite for a healthy Entrepreneurial Community. However, this is a necessary but not sufficient condition. We need to consider what else is needed to turn a healthy Creative Community into a healthy Entrepreneurial Community, which invariably boils down to a question of infrastructure.
To this is added the impact of time. Given the anticipated onset of peak oil, climate change, and resource scarcity, we also have to consider what steps the Entrepreneurial Community can undertake in order to give itself a degree of resilience to these anticipated problems. Indeed, we can reframe the issues to consider them as future opportunities yet to be exploited. As always, it is a case of what action can be taken today in order to help us face the future. The purpose of this session was to examine the Entrepreneurial Community in Suffolk, how it is comprised, and to consider what policies might be able to help that community. In doing so, we looked at some of the opportunities that the future may throw up, and how the Entrepreneurial Community in Suffolk could benefit from them.
(29th November 2011)
4. The Caring Community
One aspect of sustainability that is often overlooked is the need to operate a fair and just society. The definition of what is fair varies between communities and changes over time. However, it is usually the case that an equitable solution should be reached as a pre-requisite for a well balanced society. A key measure of equity in society is how its vulnerable members are treated. Traditionally, the focus has been upon the education of the young, the social care of the old, and the healthcare of society as a whole. We are living at a time when these definitions are blurring and the traditional compartments for social care no longer work as well.
For example, to serve the needs of a knowledge economy, there has to be provision for life-long learning well beyond the traditional school leaving age. Alternatively, as our society ages, the link between chronological age and dependency age is weakening. In the field of healthcare, we are all becoming more demanding of services as our expectations rise. As we move into the next two decades, technology has the promise of upsetting the traditional relationships even further. We are also at a point where the boundaries of public and private provision are changing, where the private sector has a greater role to play in activities formerly undertaken by the public sector. How far will the pendulum move in that direction? What will the future needs base look like? Will technology assist or impede this process? These are the questions that we addressed in this session.
(24th January 2012)
5. The Coastal Community
It is expected that disruptive climate change could start to become evident within the next twenty years. The disruptions caused by climate change are likely to manifest themselves through changes to the water cycle. Rainfall could become more extreme, whilst long periods where no rain falls also become manifest. For those communities based on the coast, this could imply threats from both river flooding and from tidal flooding. How can the community prepare for this possibility in the future?
The Suffolk coast ought not to be seen as a homogenous entity. Parts of the coast have a high industrial value, whilst parts of the coast have a high residential value. And yet again, parts of the coast have been scheduled to be abandoned to the sea on the grounds that the cost of sea defence is far higher than the economic value of the land to be protected. Whilst this may be an argument of economic efficiency, it is hardly likely to be seen as a good solution in terms of community equity.
It is also the case that, when we view the water cycle throughout Suffolk, a high degree of externality exists within current and future land use patterns. The construction of residential property on river flood plains has led to a much faster throughput of high rainfall onto coastal communities. The investment to protect the downstream communities from high peaks of river flow hasn’t been adequate for the job required, leaving the coastal communities to pay the external cost of development. Could this require some corrective action at the county level? The issue of the water cycle and the Suffolk coastal communities is one that is dominated by externalities. It calls into question what economic efficiency means, and leads us to ask where equity fits into that calculation. These are the issues that this session was designed to address.
(28th February 2012)
6. The Food Community
Food is likely to be a key issue out to 2030. Already long term food prices are rising as demand starts to outstrip supply. This could be a mixed blessing for Suffolk. As an agricultural county, Suffolk is well placed to benefit from the rising prices of agricultural produce. However, this benefit may not be shared generally as rising food prices squeeze the living standards of everyone.
It is expected that disruptive climate change could start to become evident within the next twenty years. Rainfall could become more extreme, whilst long periods where no rain falls also become manifest. This may change the ability of food to be produced within the county, and has major implications for the water infrastructure that is needed to irrigate the crops grown. It is also expected that the impacts of peak oil could start to become evident within the next twenty years. The disruptions caused to the food distribution system caused by peak oil could mean that food is not necessarily delivered to market in a timely manner, and the possible cost of food storage could become an issue by 2030.
What are the implications of these potential future changes? How can we avoid a dystopian future from emerging? How can we ensure that a fair system of food production and distribution is devised? These are the questions that this session addressed.
(3rd April 2012)
Of course, the future is not pre-determined and we have it in our capacity to prepare for this future and to mitigate some of the possible worse effects. That was the theme of this programme. The purpose of this programme was to outline how a community base in rural England can respond to these challenges, and to highlight some of the policy decisions that could be implemented today to give us a brighter tomorrow.
The programme consisted of a series of six sessions. It was delivered at the Suffolk County Council HQ in Ipswich, in conjunction with RSA Suffolk, the Eastern Enterprise Hub, and Transition Ipswich. The content of the programme was reported to the WFS Annual Conference in Toronto, July 2012.
The first session served as a briefing session to highlight some of the key factors that are likely to become evident in the decade 2020-30, along with some of the complex interlinkages between the factors. The following five sessions focused upon how distinct communities can respond to this possible future. Click here to access the slides from the presentations. The six sessions were:
1. The Many and the FEW
In the year 2000, the population on earth was 6 billion people. In 2011, the population will reach 7 billion. By 2025, global population will grow to 8 billion. The Many refers to the growth in global population in the years to 2030. One of the implications of this rapid population is that we shall need to grow more food. In doing so, we shall use more energy and we shall use far more water. The FEW refers to the Food, Energy, and Water that the increased population will want to consume.The potential constraints resulting from our unsustainable use of the FEW are ones of great concern to futurists.
There is the possibility of acute scarcities of food, energy, and water as we head towards 2030. These scarcities are likely to be further exacerbated by the impact of climate change and peak oil over the next two decades. From this perspective, there is ample scope for quite a dystopian future. However, this future is not set, and we still have time to prepare for it, in order to make the most of the opportunities that it generates. It is up to us to construct a better future.
This session examined the key drivers that are propelling us towards a period of scarcity. We considered the basic components and how they fit together in a complex and unpredictable system. The session set the scene for participants in the following sessions where the impacts of the Many and the FEW upon specific communities were discussed.
(20th September 2011)
2. The Creative Community
“Where will the jobs come from?” is a cry often heard when it is proposed that we embrace change in the economy. The purpose of this session was to answer that question. Despite the real fears that people have about change giving rise to job losses, it is also true to say that there is also a continual process of job creation that goes with it. We are currently moving from the Organisational Age to the Creative Age. The Knowledge Economy is a phenomenon of the Creative Age. In the Knowledge Economy, the key to wealth creation is the ability to enhance knowledge. Knowledge is enhanced by adding value to what is known already, and this occurs through a creative process. By augmenting knowledge creatively, those who undertake this process have added value to the existing stock of knowledge, and this wealth creation drives economic growth.
It is often said that the key to job creation is the nurturing of the ‘Creative Class’. This is a group of people who are seen as essential to triggering economic growth. Much effort is made to attract the creatives to various locations, with varying degrees of success. Normally, we would want to generate a creative cluster as a pre-requisite to economic success. It is not until the cluster is fully interactive that the benefits will be felt. In this session, we considered who the ‘Creative Class’ are, why they are seen as essential to economic regeneration, and what policies and strategies could be put in place to attract and nurture them. We also took a detour into our likely technological future before moving on to consider what sort of jobs might be in Suffolk by 2030 if these policies were to be effective.
(25th October 2011)
3. The Entrepreneurial Community
It is commonly held that the main generator of jobs and prosperity is the small business sector. As a convenient shorthand, we called this the ‘Entrepreneurial Community’, assuming a degree of similarity between all small businesses in terms of outlook and aspirations. Whilst this is not necessarily the case, it is true to say that many large businesses do start off as small businesses. The Entrepreneurial Community takes responsibility for bringing to market the ideas of the Creative Community. The two appear to go together in tandem, and that a healthy Creative Community is a pre-requisite for a healthy Entrepreneurial Community. However, this is a necessary but not sufficient condition. We need to consider what else is needed to turn a healthy Creative Community into a healthy Entrepreneurial Community, which invariably boils down to a question of infrastructure.
To this is added the impact of time. Given the anticipated onset of peak oil, climate change, and resource scarcity, we also have to consider what steps the Entrepreneurial Community can undertake in order to give itself a degree of resilience to these anticipated problems. Indeed, we can reframe the issues to consider them as future opportunities yet to be exploited. As always, it is a case of what action can be taken today in order to help us face the future. The purpose of this session was to examine the Entrepreneurial Community in Suffolk, how it is comprised, and to consider what policies might be able to help that community. In doing so, we looked at some of the opportunities that the future may throw up, and how the Entrepreneurial Community in Suffolk could benefit from them.
(29th November 2011)
4. The Caring Community
One aspect of sustainability that is often overlooked is the need to operate a fair and just society. The definition of what is fair varies between communities and changes over time. However, it is usually the case that an equitable solution should be reached as a pre-requisite for a well balanced society. A key measure of equity in society is how its vulnerable members are treated. Traditionally, the focus has been upon the education of the young, the social care of the old, and the healthcare of society as a whole. We are living at a time when these definitions are blurring and the traditional compartments for social care no longer work as well.
For example, to serve the needs of a knowledge economy, there has to be provision for life-long learning well beyond the traditional school leaving age. Alternatively, as our society ages, the link between chronological age and dependency age is weakening. In the field of healthcare, we are all becoming more demanding of services as our expectations rise. As we move into the next two decades, technology has the promise of upsetting the traditional relationships even further. We are also at a point where the boundaries of public and private provision are changing, where the private sector has a greater role to play in activities formerly undertaken by the public sector. How far will the pendulum move in that direction? What will the future needs base look like? Will technology assist or impede this process? These are the questions that we addressed in this session.
(24th January 2012)
5. The Coastal Community
It is expected that disruptive climate change could start to become evident within the next twenty years. The disruptions caused by climate change are likely to manifest themselves through changes to the water cycle. Rainfall could become more extreme, whilst long periods where no rain falls also become manifest. For those communities based on the coast, this could imply threats from both river flooding and from tidal flooding. How can the community prepare for this possibility in the future?
The Suffolk coast ought not to be seen as a homogenous entity. Parts of the coast have a high industrial value, whilst parts of the coast have a high residential value. And yet again, parts of the coast have been scheduled to be abandoned to the sea on the grounds that the cost of sea defence is far higher than the economic value of the land to be protected. Whilst this may be an argument of economic efficiency, it is hardly likely to be seen as a good solution in terms of community equity.
It is also the case that, when we view the water cycle throughout Suffolk, a high degree of externality exists within current and future land use patterns. The construction of residential property on river flood plains has led to a much faster throughput of high rainfall onto coastal communities. The investment to protect the downstream communities from high peaks of river flow hasn’t been adequate for the job required, leaving the coastal communities to pay the external cost of development. Could this require some corrective action at the county level? The issue of the water cycle and the Suffolk coastal communities is one that is dominated by externalities. It calls into question what economic efficiency means, and leads us to ask where equity fits into that calculation. These are the issues that this session was designed to address.
(28th February 2012)
6. The Food Community
Food is likely to be a key issue out to 2030. Already long term food prices are rising as demand starts to outstrip supply. This could be a mixed blessing for Suffolk. As an agricultural county, Suffolk is well placed to benefit from the rising prices of agricultural produce. However, this benefit may not be shared generally as rising food prices squeeze the living standards of everyone.
It is expected that disruptive climate change could start to become evident within the next twenty years. Rainfall could become more extreme, whilst long periods where no rain falls also become manifest. This may change the ability of food to be produced within the county, and has major implications for the water infrastructure that is needed to irrigate the crops grown. It is also expected that the impacts of peak oil could start to become evident within the next twenty years. The disruptions caused to the food distribution system caused by peak oil could mean that food is not necessarily delivered to market in a timely manner, and the possible cost of food storage could become an issue by 2030.
What are the implications of these potential future changes? How can we avoid a dystopian future from emerging? How can we ensure that a fair system of food production and distribution is devised? These are the questions that this session addressed.
(3rd April 2012)