THE EUROPEAN

FUTURES

OBSERVATORY

Project Objectives

 

This project is based upon the premise that, at present, the USA is the only credible global power in the world and that, by the year 2025, it is highly unlikely that the USA will be the only credible global power in the world.

 

If this premise is correct then two interesting questions emerge. First, who are the contenders to rival the USA as super-powers in the world by the year 2025? And second, what will be the likely process of transition between the current situation in 2005 and the new arrangements in 2025? It is these questions that the project will address.

 

A project of this scale could not concern itself with forecasting the likely state of events in 2025. For this reason, we feel that a scenario based methodology would be most appropriate, as we are concerned with a range of possibilities that may come to pass.

 

Within this structure, there are a number of key actors, all of whom will interact with each other over the passage of time. The construction of a set of inductive scenarios would best allow this interaction to take place within the fabric of the project. The interactive aspect of the methodology would be further enhanced if we were to use a gaming technique to draw out this interaction.

 

The project will result in the development of a number of inductive scenarios that will form the basis of the results to be published late in 2006.

 

Stephen Aguilar-Millan

December 2004

 

Click here for the full Project Briefing.

 

© EUFO Limited 2005

 

EUFO Limited is a not-for-profit company limited by guarantee, incorporated in England.

 

Reg Number 4947883.

 

Registered office; 6 Greenways Close, Ipswich, Suffolk IP1 3RB, United Kingdom.

 

All rights reserved.