The EU Briefing

THE EUROPEAN

FUTURES

OBSERVATORY

The EU Briefing

Background

To many observers, the pivotal point in Europe’s recent past was the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. An immediate effect of this change was the re-unification of Germany which, in turn, gave impetus to the issue of the enlargement of the EU. Over the course of the 1990s, the EU transformed itself from being a comfortable club of rich nations to becoming a contender for superpower status within the world. Through a programme of successive enlargement, by 2005 the EU had become the largest single market in the world, with a population of about 450 million.

Whilst Europe had the potential to develop as a dominant trading block, this potential had not been fully realised by 2005. Europe had, for years, been suffering from high long term unemployment at its core. The nations of the EU had also showed a marked preference for welfare as a spending priority, which had affected the ability of Europe to act politically at the same level as it could act economically on the world stage. This, however, by 2005 had started to change with the deployment of EUFOR in Bosnia.

The deployment of EUFOR in Bosnia was the culmination of a trend that had been developing since the mid-1990s. The disintegration of the Former Republics of Yugoslavia in the 1990s demonstrated the impotence of the EU as a regional power, a deficit that the EU governments were determined to overcome. With an antipathetic response to the American “War On Terror” in the new century, it became obvious to European governments that a new security framework, possibly outside of the auspices of NATO, was needed. The issue of European security independence was central to the controversy surrounding the issue of EU arms sales to China and Spanish arms sales to Latin America.

By 2005, some observers were taking the view that the EU was redefining what it meant to be a global superpower. In the exercise of its influence, Europe depended crucially on the exercise of soft power (trade relations, aid, diplomacy, and exhortation) to achieve its aims. This was backed by the judicial use of hard power, but, by 2005, that exercise of hard power was undertaken in the continent of Europe, and in conjunction with the US outside of Europe. However, the European focus on peace-keeping and nation-building as military objectives, combined with the use of soft power, gave rise to what pro-European observers termed “Transformative Power”. In the use of this influence, the EU seeks to transform those it comes into contact with, not to dominate them.

An example of the use of transformative power was the growth of the Euro. First introduced as a hard currency in 2002, by 2005 the Euro was starting to show potential as a challenger to the US Dollar as the world reserve currency. The Euro gave the East Asian nations an alternative currency for their trading surpluses, and this increased its attractiveness as a unit of account in international trade. By 2005, OPEC had started to hint that it might be of benefit for the oil exports of their members to be denominated in Euros rather than in US Dollars.

By 2005, the EU was facing a number of key challenges to the future:

1. How would the EU engage the US, and at what level?

2. How would the EU define its eastern border?

3. How would the EU respond to the three Asian heavyweights?

4. How are new members integrated into the EU?

5. Would the population changes to 2025 cause an economic disaster?

6. Can Europe develop a defence industry?

The Federal Mission

In recent years, the EU has started to realise some of the diplomatic and political promise that a united Europe might display. It is your task, by 2025, to set in motion policies that will consolidate and extend that influence. Your primary task is to ensure the continued viability of the Social Demographic model, which underpins the European culture and which is central to the European way of life.

By 2025, you will have:

1. Secured the sources of foreign oil imports for the European economy.

2. Ensured that the economic development of the EU has continued to make progress within the Social Democratic model.

3. Started to develop a counterbalance to American military might.

4. Ensured that international institutions reflect Europe’s transformative power.

5. Promoted European institutions as models for international co-operation.

The Atlanticist Mission

In recent years, there has been a divide emerging in the relationship between the US and Europe. It is your task, by 2025, to set in motion policies that will restore and enhance that relationship. Your primary task is to revive and transform the European economy, which underpins domestic prosperity and which underwrites the ability of Europe to act on the global stage.

By 2025, you will have:

1. Lessened the dependence of the European economy on foreign oil imports.

2. Reduced the dependence of European society on welfare payments.

3. Integrated Europe as part of a global collective effort to maintain peace and security under the leadership of the US.

4. Developed international institutions that include an engaged US.

5. Spread economic opportunity and liberal democracy throughout the world.

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