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THE EUROPEAN FUTURES OBSERVATORY |
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The London Futures Symposium |
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On Friday 18th April 2008, twenty futurists and non-futurists from across Europe met at The Keyworth Centre at the London South Bank University for a series of presentations on aspects of the future. The day spilt into two convenient halves.
In the morning session David Birch of Consult Hyperion, despite flying overnight from New York to be with us, gave an excellent presentation entitled ‘Money talks, and it is saying goodbye’, which examined the prospect of a cashless future. David speculated about the proliferation of various currencies in the future (e.g. Sainsburys Credits, Vodaphone Credits, and so on), which gave us all food for thought.
Martin Rhisiart of Cardiff University followed with a presentation entitled ‘Decentralisation and the long goodbye of the State’, which examined the perceived loosening of the nation state as the basic unit of government in recent years, and how that might play into the future. In many ways, this was a very good compliment to the first presentation, as both addressed the core issues of sovereignty and legitimacy, which have changed in recent years.
The afternoon session examined two different aspects of a single piece of work - an examination of the world of work and management in 2018, commissioned by The Chartered Management Institute in the UK.
The first presentation, delivered by Zarmina Penner of Future Management Group AG in Germany, was entitled ‘The Future Of Work 2018’. It told us about the Eltville Model, and how that model had been used to develop the work commissioned by the CMI. This was an excellent session described how to conduct a futures project using the Eltville Model.
The second presentation, delivered by Jo Causon of The Chartered Management Institute, was entitled ‘Management Futures - The World Of Work In 2018’. It placed more emphasis on the content of the report rather than the methodology involved. We ought to take note of this report, as it will contain some of the key working assumptions about the future that will guide British management in their planning in coming years. CMI Report ‘Management Futures - The World In 2018’
The formal presentations were followed by a round table discussion on two topics. One of the attendees asked for some observations on developing critical uncertainties in the context of a simple 2x2 matrix scenario, so we talked about how to boil, say, 19 possibilities down to 2 critical uncertainties.
The other topic was where the group might go next. It was felt that the day was a worthwhile effort and that we might meet more regularly. There were mixed feelings about whether the meetings should be in London or elsewhere. In terms of transport, London is pretty central to the UK, but that then tends to colour the content and to exclude those who are unable to make it to London.
I think that we were gravitating towards a balance between London and the regions in the UK. As a first step, Yorkshire and Wales might be our initial ports of call because that is where we have received our first element of regional support.
We also needed to acknowledge the support that we received from across Europe, and we ought to seek opportunities to meet at the European level. The Observatory for International Markets, which is based in Barcelona, was represented at the meeting, and it was felt that we ought to take our first step looking to organise a meeting under the auspices of the Observatory for International Markets later this year.
All in all, we feel that we took a good first step in creating a community of futurists in Europe and that we established a platform on which we can build in the months to come.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan Director of Research April 2008. |
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